San Mateo County Real Estate Market Update: Two Markets, Two Completely Different Stories (Q1 2026)
The San Mateo County real estate market just delivered one of its strongest spring data sets in years — but the picture looks very different depending on whether you're tracking single-family homes or condos, buying or selling, and what price range you're watching.
Here's a breakdown of exactly what the numbers show through the end of Q1 2026, and what they mean for your situation on the Peninsula right now.
Luxury Home Sales Surge 27% Year-Over-Year
Sales of homes priced at $5 million and above in San Mateo County jumped 27% year-over-year in March 2026. That's approaching levels last seen in March 2022, which is remarkable when you consider that interest rates are now roughly double what they were then.
The luxury market didn't just hold steady. It accelerated.
This strength isn't limited to one price tier. Recent transactions across the Peninsula have ranged from $1.5 million up to $9 million, with demand visible at every price point. Part of what's driving this: the stock market has been strong, AI sector growth has brought more high-earning buyers into the market, and buyers who are waiting on compensation packages from major tech companies — Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, Perplexity — are actively planning purchases in the $5M+ range as liquidity events approach.
Supply Is Growing — But Demand Is Growing Faster
As of early April 2026, there were approximately 821 active home listings in San Mateo County. New listings rose about 4% over the past year, which sounds healthy. But sales volume rose 7% in the same period. Meaning demand is outpacing supply growth.
The result is continued upward pressure on prices even as more inventory enters the market. In most markets, rising supply leads to price softening. Here, more homes are coming on and still getting absorbed, a pattern that signals genuine demand depth, not just seasonal activity.
Key Market Metrics: Q1 2026 Snapshot
Here's what the data shows through the end of March 2026:
• Median home price: $2,625,000 — up 3% year-over-year
• 74% of single-family homes sold over asking price in March
• 67% of all home sales (including condos and townhomes) closed over asking
• Average days on market: 21 overall; 19 for houses, 17 for townhomes, 29 for condos
• Months of Supply Inventory (MSI): 1.6 — well below the 3-month threshold that signals a seller's market
An MSI of 1.6 means that if no new listings came on the market, all existing inventory would sell out in roughly six weeks. Anything under 3 months is considered a seller's market. Anything over 6 months tips toward buyers. At 1.6, the structural advantage belongs to sellers.
Condo Market: A Different Story
If single-family homes are one market right now, condos are another — and the signals point in the opposite direction.
Active condo inventory across San Mateo and Santa Clara counties is up 95% since March 2025. That's essentially a doubling of supply, while the number of condos going into escrow has remained relatively flat. More inventory, similar transaction volume, that combination pushes prices down.
The data confirms it: the median condo price in San Mateo County is down approximately 8% year-over-year, and down about 1% over the past five years.
For buyers, this represents real opportunity, more options, less competition, and more negotiating leverage than you'll find in the single-family market. For sellers, pricing strategy and presentation matter more right now than in almost any other segment of the market.
One important note: condos have operated under a different set of rules than houses for a while now. If you're considering a condo purchase, it's worth being clear-eyed about short-term appreciation expectations based on what the data shows.
What This Means If You're Selling
Spring is historically the strongest window for sellers on the Peninsula, and this year's data reinforces that. We're seeing multiple offers, record prices, and well-priced homes moving in 7–10 days on average for well-prepared listings. The data suggests Q2 is one of the most compelling listing windows in recent years.
If you're considering selling your home in Burlingame, San Carlos, San Mateo, Hillsborough, or elsewhere on the Peninsula, the current conditions represent a meaningful window, particularly before summer, when buyer activity historically softens.
What This Means If You're Buying
An MSI of 1.6 means waiting for the market to shift is not a data-supported strategy. The market structure, with more buyers than available supply, is unlikely to reverse in one or two quarters, especially with major IPOs expected later this year that will likely add additional purchasing power to the Peninsula market.
The practical implication: be well-prepared before the right home hits the market. Know your price point, understand what recent data says homes are actually selling for (not just what they're listed at), and move quickly when a strong candidate comes up. If a home comes to market on Monday or Tuesday, getting in to see it within a day or two — rather than waiting for the weekend — gives you meaningful time to complete due diligence before offer deadlines.
Writing offers close to list price on homes that are trading 10–15% over asking doesn't put you in a position to win. Working with someone who can give you an honest read on actual transaction data for each property saves time, stress, and often money.
The Long-Term Trend
Zooming out: median home prices in San Mateo County have been on a slow and steady appreciation path from 2015 through 2026, with the typical seasonal rhythm. Prices tend to rise in spring, plateau through summer, and pull back slightly heading into winter before climbing again. That long-term trend line remains intact.
The short-term picture: global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and some tech sector volatility have done little to interrupt it. The market has continued to move forward.
Questions About the San Mateo County Market?
The data is one thing; how it applies to your specific situation, neighborhood, and price range is another. If you're trying to figure out whether now is the right time to make a move, or you just want a clear-eyed read on what the numbers actually mean for your home or your search, I'm happy to dig into it with you.
Reach out through the contact form on the site, or drop a comment below with your question.
This article is copyrighted by Raziel Ungar and may not be reproduced or copied without express written permission.
