What Every San Mateo County Home Buyer Must Know to Win in 2026

San Mateo County just closed out 2025 with the highest median home prices in county history—about $2 million. Even more remarkable? This happened while mortgage rates hovered at 6%, a level that's been crushing sales across California. Yet luxury property sales here are up 39% year over year.

The game has completely changed. If you're planning to buy a home in San Mateo County in 2026 and don't understand what's driving this market, you're going to get left behind. The strategies that worked a year ago won't cut it anymore.

After 21 years of selling real estate in this county, I've never seen anything like what's happening right now. Here's what you need to know.

The AI Wealth Effect Is Reshaping the Peninsula

There's been a massive influx of wealth hitting the San Francisco Peninsula, and it's primarily driven by AI companies. Most employees from OpenAI, Google, Perplexity, Nvidia, and other major tech firms live in San Francisco, San Mateo County, and Santa Clara County.

The numbers are staggering. OpenAI allowed employees to sell about $10 billion in stock just in Q4 2025, creating massive liquidity. I have clients purchasing their first homes in the $3 to $5 million range. Employees at Oracle, Nvidia, and Alphabet are sitting on significant wealth as these stocks have surged.

This wealth creation is unprecedented in the housing market. Santa Clara County actually had more luxury sales last year than even San Mateo County—places like Atherton, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, and Woodside with their larger homes on larger lots saw incredible activity.

Expect Continued Price Appreciation Through Mid-2026

Real estate prices were up quite a bit in 2025, and I believe we're going to continue seeing appreciation in the next 3 to 9 months. Historically in San Mateo County, prices increase in Q1 and Q2, then level out in Q3 and Q4. But at the end of Q4 2025, I saw homes hit record numbers per square foot for their property type—atypical from what we've seen in the past.

This appreciation won't apply to every property. There's a rising tide, but it's really focused on homes in the best locations, in the best condition, with really attractive floor plans. Those are the homes that will be most competitive and appreciating.

If you're a buyer, this is challenging news. If you're a seller, obviously this is great. But don't rush out and buy something just for the sake of buying. Be smart about it.

The Inventory Crisis: Less Than 1,000 Homes for 740,000 People

We ended 2025 with less than a thousand homes for sale in San Mateo County. With 740,000 residents, that's less than 2% of inventory turning over in one year.

To put this in perspective: Redwood Shores had less than 40 sales last year between condos, townhomes, and single-family homes. In Burlingame, it's even harder to find inventory. The years 2023, 2024, and 2025 were the three lowest sales years in the last 25 years of tracked data.

In micro-markets like Burlingame or San Carlos, you might see only 12 to 15 homes sell per month. If you're looking at a specific price band in a specific location, you might only have one home every two weeks that could interest you. There's just not a lot out there.

The Patient Buyer Paradox: Be Strategic, Then Move Fast

Here's the paradox: you need to be patient and strategic, but when the right home appears, you need to move fast. This is not a contradiction—it's the reality of buying in this market.

When a home that fits your criteria hits the market, don't wait until the open house. Call your agent and get in there on the first, second, or third day. Get the disclosures in advance and read through them. That way you can attend the open house on the weekend having already visited once or twice, talk to neighbors, and make a positive impression on the listing agent.

Do not see a home Sunday afternoon for the first time, call your agent Monday, have them see it Monday, and then find out offers are due Wednesday. That's super stressful, and it doesn't have to be like that.

If you see a property early in the process, you can take 2, 3, or 4 days to think about it. You can let it simmer while you go about your regular day—pick your kids up, take them to soccer practice, go out on date night. It's nice to have a mental health break between seeing the property and deciding if you're going to be the one overpaying every other buyer to get the house.

Keep in mind: the best homes sell within 1 to 2 weeks with an offer date. About two-thirds of homes last year sold with offer dates and went over asking price anywhere from 5% to 20%.

Ignore the Asking Price—It's Probably a Teaser

You need to understand the market conditions for each neighborhood and essentially toss that asking price out the window. It may be a teaser price—the listing agent may have underpriced the property to get more bids. As a listing agent for my sellers, I find this is actually a very effective strategy for bringing out the highest possible price.

Case in point: I had a listing in Burlingame a few months ago where we were asking $1.6 million. We thought it would land around $2 million. We spent several months preparing the house, and it looked beautiful. It ended up selling for $2.7 million—$1.1 million over asking.

This doesn't happen with every house, and yes, we had some luck. But we prepared it really well. What I'm seeing is 80% to 90% of the homes my clients write offers on are highly competitive with multiple offers.

I sympathize—it's frustrating when you've worked hard and you're ready to buy your first property for $1.3 million or $6 million and you can't just write a check. A lot of people are used to getting what they want. But around here, we have to be patient.

Do Your Homework: Education Down to the Street Level

Before you waste time and energy looking at the wrong houses, you need to understand what you can afford and what represents real value—down to street-level details.

I recommend doing a deep dive on everything that's sold in your target area over the last 3 to 6 months. If you want to buy in Belmont, look at all the homes that sold in that particular neighborhood. Then look at adjoining neighborhoods and figure out how many would have interested you if you'd been looking in Q3 or Q4 2025.

Whittle it down by bedroom count and topography. In Belmont, your home may or may not be on the same level as the street because there are sloped hills, windier streets, and fewer street lights. In Burlingame, if you want a flat neighborhood, look at pockets like Burlingame Gables, Lyon Hoag, Burlingame Village, or West of El Camino areas like Grant Park, Easton Addition, or Burlingame Terrace Park.

Look at them in street view, then drive around. If these streets don't appeal to you, eliminate them. That way when something pops up while you're at work or working from home, you don't drop everything only to think, "That was a total waste of time."

As a buyer, you should really only see homes that you and your agent feel are legitimate candidates for purchase. Use your time thoughtfully and efficiently.

Understanding Price Per Square Foot Variations

You need to understand why one street in San Mateo averages $1,500 to $1,600 per square foot, another street averages $1,200 to $1,300 per square foot, and another neighborhood could be $900 to $1,000 per foot. There are huge differences just within half a mile.

Many inputs drive value: school district desirability, walkability and commuting trade-offs, and future development. If you buy a four-bedroom home and see lots of two-bedroom homes on the block, maybe those two-bedrooms will be torn down and turned into larger homes. Is that something you want to live next to? I'd argue if it's the right location, still go for it.

Prioritize Location Over Condition

I encourage you to buy the best real estate you can. If the location is an A or A-minus but the house itself is a B or B-plus, get the best location. If you have capacity to invest in the house over time, get that better location.

In my business, we do very little repeat business. Typically, our clients buy and stay for a really long time. Maybe someone gets more liquidity and wants to buy bigger or downsize, but generally speaking, whatever you buy, be prepared to be in it for a long time.

Get Conditionally Underwritten—Not Just Pre-Approved

If you're getting a loan, make sure you're conditionally underwritten—not just pre-approved or pre-qualified, but underwritten.

About 30% of transactions in higher-end markets like Burlingame and Hillsborough are cash. I've written offers in the last month in the $5 to $6 million range and the $1.5 million range that were cash. If you're competing with cash buyers, get conditionally underwritten in advance so you can do a 15-day close of escrow.

You want to go through pre-qual, pre-approval, and conditional underwriting approval. When you're competing with cash, if the listing agent is doing their due diligence, they're going to call your lender and ask, "Did this buyer go through underwriting?" If you only went through pre-approval, that's not a good situation.

I had a transaction several months ago close to $4 million where the lender told me the buyers were underwritten. Unfortunately, we found out later they weren't. Several days before closing, they weren't able to perform on the contract. I connected them with my go-to lender, my sellers gave them a two-week extension, and the transaction closed. But it was so much unnecessary stress that's totally avoidable.

Realtors don't receive financial compensation for referring buyers to lenders—that would violate RESPA. But I recommend choosing your realtor first and then lender second, because your Realtor likely has an amazing lender they highly recommend.

Competition Is Fierce at Every Price Point

Half to two-thirds of properties sold over asking price in 2025, depending on the town. We're seeing this competition at all price points.

Here's an interesting data point from Q3 2025: there were just 64 sales over $5 million, up 10% from the previous quarter. Through the end of 2025, there were close to 250-260 luxury sales for the whole year—not a lot, but still up 39% from 2024. And homes selling over $10 million? Not many.

Because it's so intense, consider writing a preemptive offer if you see something intriguing. If you write a really strong offer right when it comes to the market, you could preempt other buyers and secure the property. It has to be a significant premium to say to the seller, "Don't wait a week for an offer date. Take this offer now."

Might you feel like you overpaid a little? Possibly. But at least you got what you wanted. I've helped hundreds of buyers win in multiple offer situations.

The Deeper Bucket Phenomenon

There's something we call the deeper bucket phenomenon. The bucket that buyers have to spend is deeper than it's ever been in relation to sales prices. Even though homes are selling at all-time highs—and yes, less than 1% of Bay Area residents can afford the median sales price, which isn't good—many people I've talked to in recent months have received significantly more liquidity from their companies.

I fully acknowledge we have major housing issues. Should real estate be this expensive? That's not my place to say. I can only comment on what I've seen representing buyers and sellers in these conditions. I can't comment on whether it's right or wrong, but this is what I'm seeing to get transactions done.

San Mateo County's Geographic Advantage

San Mateo County sits right in the middle between San Francisco's AI startup boom—though is OpenAI still a startup with a $500 billion valuation?—and all the tech giants in the South Bay.

I hear this more and more from buyers: "We really like the North Peninsula because it gives us career optionality." If their job changes and they need to move to the South Bay, or their job moves to the city, they don't have to move houses. That's why we're seeing such huge investments here—the career flexibility and optionality.

Put this in perspective: if just one or two families who work at a local tech company decide to buy in Burlingame, having just two to three new buyers who weren't there 12 months ago puts pressure on the market and pushes prices higher.

We had a rate cut at the end of Q4, so I'm looking forward to seeing if that impacts interest rates in Q1 2026. I had a call last night with folks whose asking price was too ambitious a couple years ago. Now, I think the number they're considering is super realistic. When we put their home on the market in the next few months, I believe they're going to have a really positive outcome.

The Off-Market Advantage

Do homes sell without going to the MLS? Yes. As a seller's agent, I'm a huge fan of putting homes on the market to maximize price. But sellers sometimes choose to go off-market to test the market quietly or for privacy concerns.

As a buyer's agent, I love off-market opportunities because you might not compete with as many buyers. It's important to work with someone tapped into what might be coming on the market or selling off-market, so you have maximum visibility.

Just in the last year, I've helped several buyers find their dream homes as simply as someone calling me and saying, "Raziel, we have this home for sale. Would your clients be interested?" I passed those opportunities to my buyers and they bought the homes. That's a huge win.

A Reality Check on Condos

Not all real estate is equal. While single-family home prices are hitting records, the condo market has been struggling. Over the last four to five years since COVID, condo prices in San Mateo County have actually dropped. This is shocking, though if you look at San Francisco's condo market over the last decade, we're not as bad.

If you're thinking about buying a condo, make sure you're doing it for the right reasons, understanding that values are flat. People often buy for emotional reasons. It's nice to own property for tax advantages and to deduct mortgage interest up to $750,000, but don't expect condos to just keep appreciating.

Townhomes have done pretty well compared to condos, but single-family homes have done better than townhomes. Ultimately, this is about price and what you're comfortable with. I've had clients buy condos for specific reasons—one during a main house remodel to later turn into income property, another for their parents. There are many reasons that aren't just financial.

Navigating This Market Takes Local Expertise

The San Mateo County market in 2026 is being reshaped by forces we've never seen before: unprecedented AI-driven wealth creation, historically low inventory, and fierce competition at every price level. Success requires understanding the patient buyer paradox—being strategic and prepared, then moving decisively when the right opportunity appears.

From understanding why homes on one street sell for $1,600 per square foot while the next street over sells for $1,200, to knowing which lender can get you conditionally underwritten for a 15-day close, to having access to off-market opportunities before they hit the MLS—the details matter enormously in this environment.

If you're serious about buying or selling on the Peninsula, let's talk about your specific situation. I'd love to create a game plan that positions you to win in this market.

This article is copyrighted by Raziel Ungar and may not be reproduced or copied without express written permission.