How AI Wealth Is Reshaping San Mateo County Real Estate
Right now, a few employees from companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, or Oracle can totally shift an entire city's housing market in San Mateo County. It's not an exaggeration. That is what I'm seeing on the ground right now.
With the rise of jobs in AI, people are moving here with access to a lot of cash, and it doesn't take that much to move the needle in this market. This isn't just another tech boom. This is wealth creation at a speed and scale that's fundamentally reshaping real estate in San Mateo County.
AI Buyers: A Different Financial Profile
Over the last year or two, I've watched the percentage of my clients working in AI grow dramatically. These buyers are different from a financial perspective. They're coming in with massive down payments, having recently gotten a lot more liquidity. They make very fast decisions, and they're competing with very high down payments and cash offers for the limited inventory we have available.
Why This Boom Is Different
Right now, there's a record amount of cash sitting in US money market accounts. According to the Wall Street Journal, there's over $7 trillion just sitting there getting people four and a half percent interest, and people are wanting to deploy that cash whether into investments or into homes and condos. Ultimately, you cannot live in your Apple stock. People need a place to live.
We're seeing massive growth and development spearheaded by OpenAI in San Francisco. Just in the last couple weeks, Nvidia invested a massive amount of money into a partnership with OpenAI. OpenAI is now allowing employees to sell shares in the secondary markets in the billions of dollars. Even Google just had a huge gain in their stock recently as a result of their litigation not being as strong as expected.
This isn't just stock options and RSUs. This is people selling their stock and deploying that into real estate. This is liquid wealth getting deployed into the housing market right now.
The Talent Magnet Effect
Silicon Valley has not been able to be replicated elsewhere even though there are other hubs throughout the world. The companies here in big tech are bringing in top talent from around the world. It's not just big tech—it's also biotech, healthcare, and finance, but a lot of that is big tech related.
Dozens of companies are competing for the same talent pool. You probably saw Mark Zuckerberg at Meta in the headlines paying $200 million to just a few employees. This is huge money. These people in AI are being treated like professional athletes. There's huge value being created here, and a lot of that money is getting deployed back into real estate locally, especially at these higher price points.
How One Hire Can Move the Market
I've experienced this for years: how one hire can move the market. There is a domino effect. When any of these companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, or Google make announcements, we can typically see effects in the housing market within a few months.
Here's some data that shows just how small each of these markets are:
San Mateo County Sales Data (Year to Date):
Belmont: 102 sales (11.3 homes per month average)
Burlingame: 115 sales (12.8 homes per month average)
Hillsborough: 10.1 homes per month average
San Mateo: 23 homes per month average
In Burlingame, for example, at 12.8 sales per month, is it possible that every month we could have one new employee from any company working in AI decide they want to buy a home? We're seeing these buyers come in at higher price points, like $2 to $6 million.
We don't need to have 20 employees at OpenAI buying a home in Burlingame every month. But if you have one person from OpenAI, one person from Oracle, one person from Google, one person from Nvidia just entering the market, that's going to put pressure on prices. That's exactly what we're seeing now for the best real estate.
A and B Properties: Understanding the Market Split
When I work with my clients, I grade properties: this is an A, this is an A minus, this is a B+. If you can get something that's at least an A minus, you're winning.
Looking at this data, 12.8 homes are selling per month in Burlingame. In order for the market to remain flat, that means there needs to be about 13 buyers per month who want to buy a home in Burlingame who actually buy. If there are at least 15 or 20 families, couples, individuals who are willing to buy a home in Burlingame at any given moment—and there could easily be 30 or 40—then you start to see prices rise. That's why we see prices have risen very steadily even with interest rates being higher, because there's so much liquidity coming into the market.
The Cash Flood: San Mateo County Transaction Data
The amount of cash we're seeing come into San Mateo County is remarkable. In Palo Alto in particular, you could be at a disadvantage at some higher price points without cash. For a while, it's been 50% or more of transactions in Palo Alto selling with cash, which is massive.
Over the last few years in markets like Burlingame and Hillsborough, which are two of the more expensive markets, we're seeing a higher percentage than we've ever seen before.
Hillsborough Cash Transaction Data:
2024: 31% of all transactions were cash
2023: 26.8%
2022: 23%
2021: 23%
2020: 15.6%
Prices have also increased at the same time. We're seeing people put down more cash while prices have gone up.
Burlingame Cash Transaction Data:
2024: 18% were cash
2023: 24.8%
2022: 9.5%
2025 will likely have the highest percentage of cash transactions in San Mateo County than any other year we've seen in the past. I'm doing a transaction right now at $1.3 million that's cash. I wrote an offer a few days ago at $2.4 million that was cash. A majority of my transactions are not cash, but I'm definitely seeing it at a higher rate than in the past.
Pro Tip for Buyers: The Data-Driven Approach
When we couple that cash data with the supply constraints, we have so few homes for sale. I wish any buyer would say to me, "There's three homes for sale here right now. I've seen them all. I've read the disclosures. They all look pretty sweet. I need your help to figure out which one I should write an offer on." No one ever says that.
Maybe in a market like Phoenix or Texas or Sacramento where there are tons of homes for sale and tract homes that all look similar, buyers have that luxury. Here, we don't.
If you're a buyer, spend the time with your agent to understand what you can get. Look back over the last 3, 6, 9, 12 months and look at the three, four, five neighborhoods you're considering. Cast a wide net in the beginning and then tighten that up so you can be focused and get very granular down to the street level detail of where you want to live.
You can see based on history what homes have sold rather than just relying on your realtor as the expert to say here's what you can get. Obviously that's helpful, but doing a more data-driven approach gives you control over how your process is going to go.
Real Client Stories: AI Wealth in Action
Clients of mine working in AI and tech are now an increasing percentage of the overall folks I represent. The four main industries that people work in who are buying around here are big tech, biotech in South San Francisco (over 80 biotech companies, 10 million square feet of lab space), healthcare (UCSF, Stanford, CPMC), and finance and fintech in San Francisco.
The Nvidia Parent Story
I was recently chatting with a client whose parent has been at Nvidia for at least 10 years. If you had a million dollars that you received over a four-year period—like a quarter million dollar grant per year as a high-value employee—today it's going to be worth tens of millions of dollars.
For that profile of client, they have their parent who they can tap as a resource to help them pay cash and then put debt on the property post-closing. That can help that buyer be a lot stronger. They can close faster, like a 7 to 10 day close, no appraisal, no financing contingency. It's just easy. We're seeing more of that.
The South Bay Crash Pad
I had a client reach out who owns a home in the northern part of the county. The husband has a new job working in the South Bay in the AI space. They reached out because they want to buy a condo in the South Bay just to have a crash pad to stay at three to four nights a week just to be near work. Their budget was about a million dollars for a one or two-bedroom condo.
More people are entering the market to buy these properties that are a luxury. It's a huge privilege, but we are seeing that happen a lot.
Buying for Family
I'm seeing clients who work in AI who have purchased properties for their parents just to be nearby. I have one friend who has done extremely well in the crypto space and has bought homes for his parents and for his sister. They all live within walking distance of each other, and each of these homes was in the $4 to $5 million price range.
This was a buyer who would not have considered purchasing 3 to 4 years ago. This is all new wealth being created at an unprecedented scale.
The AI Buyer Profile
The AI buyer profile is very patient, very sophisticated, very prepared, and they understand what they want. They also understand they could be competing with other employees and even colleagues at the companies they work with. I hear that sometimes because a lot of them are getting liquidity at the same time, so they're entering the housing market at the same time, or if they already own, then they're looking to upgrade at the same time.
This creates a bit more turnover in the market, which can unlock more transactions. The more transactions there are, the more supply there is for the broader market to choose from.
I just did a transaction a week ago. My clients are buying a larger home on a lot double the size of what they currently own. They were about to start a major renovation on their current home, but then they saw this other place had been sitting on the market for a while. It was overpriced, and we got it way under the asking price because it was mispriced from the beginning, but the home did need some work. That's an opportunity that might not have been there in the past for that profile of buyer.
People are willing to pay a premium for the right property. Regardless of how quality your representation is as a buyer, you need to be willing to outpay every other buyer to get the property.
Predictions for the Next 12 Months
We're going to see prices continue to appreciate in the high single digits over the next 12 months. This won't happen across the board for all types of real estate. This is going to happen mostly for the best pieces of real estate: homes that are in very good condition, in very good locations, at attractive asking prices.
Year to date, we're seeing about 60% of homes sell over the asking price countywide. That's not just the best real estate. That's everything. At the higher price points, we're going to see some significant appreciation.
With tariffs and construction costs and labor being so expensive, I'm now having more conversations with people who say, "You know what, if something popped up that was new construction or totally remodeled or the floor plan was good, I'm willing to pay a premium so I don't have to deal with that headache of remodeling."
What to Expect Over the Next Few Months
The winter is a great time to buy. You see many agents actually buying in the winter because you can buy properties that were overpriced, that were mispriced from the beginning. You can go in there and negotiate. December is always a fun time.
January typically has about the lowest inventory of the year. If you're a buyer, you're going to want to be patient. Nothing pops up until the third or fourth week of January. But if you're a seller, that's a great time to put your home on the market.
It's hard to time the market, but if you have the option to purchase a little sooner and you can get what you want, then go for it. Patience is a virtue and it pays off. But it's always smart to get educated now so that when the right place pops up, you can move quickly.
In Burlingame, for example, with 12 to 13 sales per month, how many of those are in the price range you want? How many of those are in the location you want? When you start to get granular on this data, you're going to see there's only maybe 1.3 homes per week coming on the market that could be a possible match for you.
Whether you're looking at Burlingame and San Mateo, San Carlos and Belmont, or Hillsborough and Parkside in San Mateo, there are so few homes out there and there's a lot of money chasing those homes. Be patient, but if and when you see the right place, act very quickly.
The Spring 2026 Outlook
If you're a seller, we're going to see a massive spring market in 2026. It's going to be a fantastic time to sell. If you're a buyer and you have cash and you have motivation or you have a strong down payment, definitely use it to your advantage.
This AI wealth isn't staying contained to just one city. We're seeing it up and down the whole peninsula because we are so perfectly situated being south of San Francisco and north of Silicon Valley. The peninsula has always and will continue to be the top choice for many people.
San Mateo County is actually the most expensive of the nine counties in the Bay Area, and for good reason. If you work in the AI space and you work in tech, your options for work if you're going to an office are either in the South Bay or in San Francisco. By buying on the North Peninsula, you get that optionality where if your job changes, you have a lot more flexibility from a career perspective. You don't have to move your house. You can keep your same real estate. That's another reason why we see so little turnover here compared to other parts of the Bay Area.
Population vs. Sales: The End Destination Effect
When you look at the population data overlaid with sales numbers, it hits home:
Belmont: 27,000 people
Burlingame: 30,000 people
Hillsborough: 11,000 people
San Mateo: 103,000 people
When you look at the percentage of how many people live in these towns compared to how few people are choosing to sell, it becomes clear. This is an end destination. People don't buy in San Carlos thinking someday I'm moving to the East Bay. People who buy here stay here as long as they can.
The Bottom Line on AI Wealth and Real Estate
We're in the middle of something unprecedented here in San Mateo County. The combination of limited inventory, massive liquidity from AI employees, record cash transactions, and the talent magnet effect is creating a market dynamic we've never quite seen before.
It doesn't take dozens of new AI employees flooding into each city every month to move prices. It takes a handful. When markets are seeing only 10 to 15 sales per month and you introduce just a few more well-capitalized buyers, the math changes fast.
This is wealth creation at a speed and scale that's fundamentally different from previous tech booms. We're not talking about waiting for stock options to vest over four years. We're talking about employees with immediate liquidity, secondary market sales measured in billions, and the willingness to deploy that capital into real estate right now.
Whether you're an AI employee looking to put your new wealth to work, a longtime resident wondering what your home is worth in this market, or someone considering a move to be closer to the innovation happening here, understanding these dynamics isn't optional anymore. It's the reality of real estate in San Mateo County right now.
If you're navigating this market and want to understand how these trends specifically affect your situation, reach out to me. I’d love to help.
This article is copyrighted by Raziel Ungar and may not be reproduced or copied without express written permission.
