San Mateo County Real Estate Market Update: Q2 2026
Hello everyone,
Let’s take a detailed look back on some interesting data over the last quarter. The San Mateo County housing market has been on fire this year with single-family home closings in June up 7.5% year over year with a median price of $2,150,000, a noticeably faster pace than the 3% growth the county was posting back in March. Condos were an even sharper story: prices rose roughly by 12% year over year, a reversal from where they stood earlier in the year when condo values were still trailing the prior twelve months.
The headline numbers:
Average single-family sale price: $2,739,770 over the twelve months ending June 2026, up from $2,567,773 the year before. That's a gain of about $172,000, or 6.7%, and it came alongside roughly 10% more homes changing hands. More sales at higher prices is about as clean a signal of genuine demand as this market gives you.
Average condo sale price: $848,821 over the twelve months ending June 2026, down from $872,545 the year before. A decline of roughly $24,000, or 2.7%. Condos have essentially held flat rather than joining the single-family climb, and individual months swing sharply in either direction simply because so few units trade, typically 60 to 80 a month countywide.
Average days on market, June 2026: 20 days, down from 23 days in June 2025. Three days faster year over year, and worth noting alongside a 7.5% rise in median price. Homes aren't just selling for more, they're selling more quickly, which tells you demand kept pace with the higher prices rather than straining against them.
Average sale-to-list ratio: 103.9%, meaning the typical home sold about 4% over asking
Fewer homes were listed this quarter, active listings fell 18%, from roughly 821 in March to 684 in June, but demand didn’t reduce. Buyers are still paying close to 4% over asking on average, even with less to choose from. The overall picture is a market accelerating through the second quarter rather than cooling into summer.
The AI Boom Is Reshaping the Top of the Market
I rarely cover or comment on the San Francisco housing market but given the AI growth I thought it'd be interesting to share how it is also affecting SF real estate (and also peninsula real estate), and this data is super interesting.
A recent Redfin report on the San Francisco market found home prices climbed to $1.725 million in June, up 16.1% year over year, the sharpest jump the city has seen since 2018. Inventory has shrunk to just over 900 homes, down from 1,400 a year ago, and luxury sales are up 22% year over year.
Separately, Redfin estimated that if OpenAI and Anthropic both go public this year, their employees could collectively afford to buy nearly a third of all homes in the San Francisco area.
A few weeks ago, I was interviewed by the San Mateo Daily Journal about this report and essentially everything that I've read as a consumer about the effects of AI, I'm experiencing as an agent. It's not confined to the luxury tier either. It’s hard to find a three bedroom home under $2 million in many areas throughout the county, and in Burlingame, a three-bedroom under $3 million now gets you a median of just 1,170 square feet. Kind of wild!
With that, here’s the SF data:
Nowhere is that heat more visible than San Francisco's luxury tier. In June alone, 44 homes in the city sold for at least a million dollars over their asking price, representing more than $60 million in combined premiums over ask. That is a level of activity that barely existed as recently as late 2025, when the same measure sat close to zero most months.
The money isn't spreading evenly across the city either. It's concentrated in a handful of neighborhoods, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights and the surrounding westside pockets among them, where AI-driven wealth appears to be landing hardest and fastest.
It's tempting to read that as proof the whole Bay Area is overheating, but that's not quite the right takeaway. The more accurate story is that a very specific kind of wealth, tied closely to AI company valuations and liquidity events, is pulling hard on one particular corner of the market while leaving much of the rest largely untouched.
Deep Dive on Single Family Homes
San Mateo County · Single-Family Homes
Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2026
Listings, sales and pricing across April, May and June. Use the toggle to switch years.
- Active Listings
- Closed Sales
- Average Sale Price
Source: MLSListings · San Mateo County, Residential, Single Family Home. Active listings are counted at month end. Both axes are held to the same scale across years so the two quarters can be compared directly.
Digging deeper into single-family inventory tells a clear story of a market absorbing everything it can get. Average active listings fell from 660 to 532, a drop of 19.4%, while closed sales for the quarter rose from 1,124 to 1,239, up 10.2%. At the same time, the average sale price climbed from $2,699,231 to $2,913,106, an increase of 7.9%. Fewer homes on the market, more of them selling, and each one selling for more, that combination only happens when demand is genuinely outrunning supply.
June 2026 is where this shows up most starkly. That month alone had 503 active listings against 439 closed sales, meaning nearly everything available found a buyer. Compare that to June 2025, when 673 active listings produced just 363 closed sales, and the shift becomes obvious. A year ago, the market was absorbing roughly half of what was on the shelf. Today, it's absorbing almost all of it.
Note: These figures come directly from MLSListings for San Mateo County, pulled after the Compass report referenced in this piece. Because of that gap in timing, closed sales counts may differ slightly from the Compass numbers, MLS records can update as late-reported sales come in.
Single-Family vs. Condo: A Tale of Two Markets
San Mateo County · July 2026 Market Update
Market Overview
Single-family homes vs. condos, and the labor-market & rate backdrop behind them. Data through June 2026.
Every core metric, side by side. Shading shows which property type leads on each row.
| Metric | Single-Family | Condo |
|---|
How San Mateo's price trend sits against the rest of the Bay Area, plus the jobs, rate and inflation picture shaping demand.
Median single-family price, % change vs. 2025
Bay Area tech layoffs, YTD 2026
58,000
Concentrated in Santa Clara County, the same county now showing -9% median price and rising inventory, the clearest sign of labor-market drag on housing this cycle.
30-yr mortgage rate
6.58%
Mid-range of the 6.5%–7.25% band held for three years; 2026 forecasts sit near 6.4%, just below today's rate.
Inflation (CPI / PCE)
4.2% / 3.8%
Both measures re-accelerated sharply since March, well above the 2% target, which is why rates aren't falling despite softer job growth elsewhere.
Reading these together: San Francisco's AI-driven wealth effect and Santa Clara's tech layoffs are two sides of the same labor market. San Mateo County sits between them, insulated by Peninsula demand, but not immune if layoffs broaden.
Source: Compass via MLS Data · San Mateo County Market Outlook, July 2026. Average days on market pulled directly from MLSListings (San Mateo County, Residential, single-family and condominium).
At the county level, single-family homes had a median price per s/f of $1,237, and for condos, $732 a s/f. Days on market tell an interesting story too:
Single-family homes sold in an average of 20 days in June, down from 23 days a year earlier. Three days quicker, roughly 13% faster, and notable given that prices climbed 7.5% over the same stretch. Buyers didn't slow down to absorb higher prices, they moved sooner.
Condos sold in an average of 40 days, down from 47 days in June 2025. That's a full week faster, about a 15% improvement, and the sharper gain of the two property types. After a stretch where condos were the slower, softer half of this market, they're now clearing more quickly than they were a year ago.
NOTE: Both figures come from MLSListings for San Mateo County, so they're directly comparable year over year.
When homes are selling faster and prices are going up at the same time, that usually means demand is actually keeping up rather than getting stretched. That's what both halves of this market did over the past year, and condos improved more than single family homes did, which is a real shift from where that segment was sitting at the start of the year.
The one caveat I'd keep in mind is volume. San Mateo County records somewhere between 45 and 85 condo closings in a typical month countywide, so a handful of unusual sales can move the average around quite a bit in either direction. That's not a reason to write off what the numbers are showing. I just think one quarter of condo data is a signal to watch and not a trend to call yet.
San Mateo County in the wider Bay Area:
San Francisco: +25% YoY (the AI wealth effect at work)
San Mateo County: +8% YoY
Napa: -17% YoY
San Mateo County sits calmly in the middle of a market that's sharply split at the edges, bordered by a boom on one side and a slowdown on the other, both in their own way tied back to the same tech industry.
How San Mateo County compares across the Bay Area
Every figure below compares June 2026's median single-family sale price against the same month a year earlier.
San Francisco led the region at +25%, by far the largest gain of any Bay Area county, and the clearest evidence that AI-driven wealth is concentrating in a very specific place rather than lifting the whole region evenly.
Marin followed at +11%, the only other county in double digits, which suggests the spillover from San Francisco is reaching north across the bridge as well as south down the Peninsula.
San Mateo County came in at +8%, with the median single-family home rising from $2,000,000 in June 2025 to $2,150,000 this June. That's a meaningful acceleration from the roughly 3% pace the county was posting back in March.
Santa Clara County fell 9%, the sharpest decline among the core Bay Area counties, and hard to separate from the roughly 58,000 tech jobs cut across the region this year, most of them concentrated there.
Napa dropped 17%, the steepest fall on the map, though it's a smaller and more seasonal market than the counties closer to the job centers.
Read together, San Mateo County sits in the steadiest part of a region pulling apart at both ends. One neighbor is booming on AI wealth, another is absorbing tech layoffs, and both of those forces trace back to the same industry.
Inventory Is Tightening, Not Loosening
San Mateo County · July 2026 Market Update
Market Velocity: How Fast, How Competitive
Price per square foot, home size and pricing pressure for single-family homes, through June 2026.
Price & Size
Single-Family Homes onlySale-to-List Ratio & Price Reductions
Single-Family Homes onlyBoth things are true in the same market at once: the typical home sells 3.9% over its final list price, yet 107 listings still needed a price cut in June. Read together, this points to overpricing still getting punished even while well-priced homes draw real competition.
Source: Compass via MLS Data · San Mateo County Market Outlook, July 2026.
Single-family homes in San Mateo County sold for a median of $1,237 per square foot in June, on a median size of 1,826 square feet. That gets you to the county's median sale price of $2,150,000, up from $2,000,000 in June 2025. I like looking at price per square foot when comparing one city to another, since a home in Hillsborough and a home in Daly City are not the same.
Pricing your home right still matters a ton right now. The average single-family home sold for 103.9% of its final list price in June, so the typical buyer paid about 4% over asking. But 107 listings also reduced their price that same month. Price it where buyers see the value and you'll likely get multiple offers. Price it too high and the market will make you come back down.
Median price per square foot: $1,237
Median home size: 1,826 square feet
Median sale price: $2,150,000, up from $2,000,000 in June 2025
Average sale-to-list ratio: 103.9%, so the typical home sold about 4% over asking
Price reductions in June: 107 listings
Single-family homes in San Mateo County sold for a median of $1,237 per square foot in June, on a median home size of 1,826 square feet. That works out to the county's $2,150,000 median sale price, up from $2,000,000 in June 2025. I tend to look at price per square foot when comparing one city to another, since it accounts for the fact that homes in Hillsborough and homes in Daly City aren't remotely the same thing.
Pricing a home correctly still matters enormously right now. The average single-family home sold for 103.9% of its final list price in June, so the typical buyer paid about 4% over asking. But 107 listings also had to cut their price that month. Those two facts sit side by side: price your home where buyers actually see the value and you'll likely get multiple offers, price it too high and the market will make you come back down.
The Bigger Picture: Jobs, Rates and Migration
San Mateo County · July 2026 Market Update
Bay Area macro pulse
The jobs, rate-lock-in and migration signals sitting underneath the housing numbers.
Share of all outstanding U.S. mortgages by interest rate, Q1 2026. Click the bar for the plain-English read.
This is the "golden handcuffs" effect: homeowners sitting on sub-4% mortgages have little financial incentive to sell and re-buy at today's ~6.6% rate. It's a structural reason inventory stays tight even when demand cools — and it applies directly to San Mateo County's own 1.5-month inventory figure.
2025 marked the first year of net inbound migration to the Bay Area in years. Seattle is the largest net-inbound source; Reno, Portland, Madison WI, Washington DC and Boulder remain net outbound destinations.
Source: Compass via MLS Data · BLS Non-Farm Payrolls · FHFA · Censai Analytics, as reported in the San Mateo County Market Outlook, July 2026.
The Employment Stats
National job growth has technically turned a corner, posting four straight months of gains after a rough 2025 that saw as many as 140,000 jobs lost in a single month
The Bay Area's own job growth has averaged a modestly positive 750 jobs added per month over the past year, even as the two most recent months on record turned negative again
Roughly 58,000 Bay Area tech jobs have been cut this year, concentrated heavily in Santa Clara County
Layer those together and you get a labor market that's genuinely split down the middle: AI-fueled hiring and wealth creation in one lane, real ongoing job losses in traditional tech in the other.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates haven't moved much in the bigger picture. June's 6.58% sits comfortably within the same 6.5% to 7.25% band the market has lived in for three years now. What's changed is the inflation picture underneath those rates: both CPI and PCE reaccelerated sharply since March, which is exactly why rates haven't had room to ease even as parts of the broader economy show real signs of cooling.
That rate environment is quietly reshaping supply too. Nearly half of all outstanding mortgages in the country, just under 50%, still carry a rate below 4%, with roughly one in five below 3% altogether. Homeowners sitting on a rate that cheap have very little financial incentive to sell and take on a new mortgage in the high 6% range. Call it the golden handcuffs effect: it's arguably a bigger long-term constraint on housing supply than anything happening on the demand side, and it helps explain why inventory can keep shrinking even in months when buyer enthusiasm is only lukewarm.
Migration
2025 marked the first year in a long stretch that the Bay Area saw net inbound migration rather than net outflow.
Largest source of new arrivals: Seattle, by a wide margin
Also notable inbound: Austin, Brooklyn
Still net outbound: Reno, Portland, Madison WI, Washington DC, Boulder
After years of headlines about people leaving California, that reversal is a quiet but meaningful shift, and it's one more thread adding to demand at exactly the moment supply is being held back from two directions at once: AI-driven wealth at the top of the market, and rate lock-in everywhere else.
City Spotlight: Hillsborough and Burlingame
San Mateo County · July 2026 Market Update
City & Property Type Comparison
A look at every city in the county, with single-family and condominium data. The numbers are based on 12-month rolling averages, comparing the year ending June 2026 to the year ending June 2025.
Click any city in the table below to spotlight it here.
Every city is clickable. Click a row to spotlight it above, click again to clear. Column headings sort the table.
| Cityi↕ | Price per S/Fi↕ | Median Pricei↕ | % Change (YoY)i↕ | Closedi↕ | Closed % Changei↕ |
|---|
Shading on "% Change (YoY)" is a diverging scale, deeper navy for stronger gains, deeper red for steeper declines. Redwood Shores (single-family) shows no % change due to very low sample size (8 closings).
Source: Compass via MLS Data · San Mateo County Market Outlook, July 2026. City-level figures are 12-month rolling averages, comparing the year ending June 2026 to the year ending June 2025.
Hillsborough posted the county's strongest single-family appreciation this period:
Median sale price: $6,000,000 (+18% YoY)
Closed sales: 141 (+26% YoY)
Price per square foot: $1,530
Everything above reflects trailing 12-month averages. Here's how June on its own stacked up against June of last year:
Price per square foot, June 2026: $1,749, up from $1,445 in June 2025. That's $304 more per foot in a single year, a jump of roughly 21%! It's worth pausing on because it outpaced the 18% rise in median sale price. When price per foot climbs faster than the median, it tells you buyers aren't simply trading up into larger houses, they're paying more for the same amount of space, which is a clearer sign of real appreciation than a rising median on its own would be.
Burlingame also hit record numbers this year:
Median sale price: $3,050,000 (+3% YoY)
Closed sales: 201 (+19% YoY)
Price per square foot: $1,524
Condo median price: $1,011,500 (+3% YoY), on 38 closed sales (+124% YoY)
All the figures above are trailing 12-month averages. I also wanted to see how June alone compared to the same month last year, since that gives a sharper read on where pricing sits today:
Price per square foot, June 2026: $1,552, up from $1,500 in June 2025. That works out to $52 more per foot, an increase of about 3.5%, which tracks almost exactly alongside Burlingame's 3% rise in median price. The two moving together implies that: unlike Hillsborough, where per-foot pricing pulled ahead of the median, Burlingame's market is holding steady at established price levels rather than re-rating upward, which fits the broader picture here of more homes selling at prices buyers and sellers already recognize as fair.
The story here is really about volume, not price. Sales climbed nearly a fifth even as prices grew modestly, suggesting more transactions are clearing at established price levels rather than the market re-rating sharply upward. Burlingame's condo jump looks dramatic on paper, but it comes from a small base of just 38 closings, so it's more accurate to describe it as condo activity picking up substantially than to lead with the raw percentage, which could otherwise read as bigger than the underlying volume supports.
The Bottom Line
San Mateo County heads into the back half of 2026 as a market that's genuinely bifurcated. AI-driven wealth is reshaping the top of the market in San Francisco and spilling into the Peninsula's most exclusive towns, while traditional tech layoffs are quietly weighing on Santa Clara County next door. San Mateo County itself sits in the calm middle of that split, with inventory tightening, homes still selling above asking, and condos showing real signs of a turnaround after a soft start to the year.
None of these numbers move in a straight line, and the next quarter could easily read differently depending on how rates, tech hiring, and migration patterns shift from here. That's exactly why we track this data closely and update it every quarter rather than leaning on last year's story.
Want to stay ahead of these trends? Subscribe to our newsletter and we'll send you our quarterly market reports as soon as they're out, no guesswork, just the numbers and what they actually mean for buyers and sellers in San Mateo County.
Thinking about buying or selling in San Mateo County? Give us a call. We'd love to talk through what these trends mean for your specific situation, whether that's timing a sale, understanding what a home in your neighborhood is really worth right now, or figuring out where the opportunities are for buyers.
This article is copyrighted by Raziel Ungar and may not be reproduced or copied without express written permission.
