Baywood & Aragon Real Estate Update October 2011 - Low Inventory

Through the first ten months of 2011 there have been 48 homes sold in the San Mateo neighborhoods of Aragon, Baywood, and Baywood Knolls, as compared to 46 homes sold in the same period last year.

Sales are up slightly, even though inventory is down. At the end of October, there were five homes for sale in these neighborhoods, as compared to 15 homes for sale at the same point last year. On average through 2011, there have been 25% fewer homes for sale than in 2010. One way to measure the amount of supply in a market is to look at the average months of supply, which measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory at the current sales rate. In 2010, there was an average of two months of supply in these neighborhoods. So far in 2011, there has been an average of 1.3 months of supply. This is extremely low. For the City and County of San Mateo, the average months of supply has been 2.9 and 3.6 months, respectively.

Listings that do come onto the market are selling quickly. The average home sold in 2011 has done so in just 25 days, much faster than in surrounding areas. Low inventory and short listing times means that buyers need to react quickly to new listings, or risk missing out on a property.

A lack of supply is often a precursor to rising prices. Price trends are difficult to determine for a small group of neighborhoods like Aragon, Baywood and Baywood Knolls. The data suggests steady pricing, with flat average and median prices, while average price per square feet are down slightly. One interesting thing to look at is the ratio of sales price to list price. In the last seven months, it has three times been above 100%, which suggests that buyers are bidding above asking price on a more frequent basis. In the year and a half prior to that it was only above 100% twice. The sales price to list price measure can sometimes be misleading, especially when homes are pulled off the market and then re-listed at a different (usually lower) price. However, the effect is usually to bring the ratio closer to 100% (as re-listed homes are sold closer to their new listing price), instead of over 100%.

If you're interested in learning more about the Aragon, Baywood, or Baywood Knolls real estate market, considering selling your home, or thinking about moving to Aragon, Baywood, or Baywood Knolls, please drop me a line and I'd love to connect with you.

Recent Sales in Aragon/Baywood

By The Numbers - Aragon/Baywood Real Estate for October 2011