San Mateo Real Estate - October 2013

It Remains a Sellers Market

Prices continue to rise, buyers are bidding above asking prices homes are selling quickly, and inventory remains low. All of these signs point to the continuation of the sellers market in San Mateo that has been in place for over a year. Here are the highlights for October 2013.

• The average price for square foot in October 2013 was $640, the highest since early 2007.
• Most homes are selling in less than two weeks. The average sold home was on the market for 14 days. For the year, the average days on market was 21 days. This is the fastest homes have sold since 2004.
• The sales price to list price ratio has been 107.4% in 2013, meaning that the average home sells for more than 7% above the final asking price. This indicator is a measure of market sentiment. Even in the buyer frenzy of the mid 2000's, the annual sales price to list price ratio was a lower, though still robust 104%.

The chart below shows 12 month moving averages to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. Prices have increased more than 15% in the past year, and 25% since early 2012. Prices continue to rise at a rapid pace that is visible even at the month-to-month level. We can divide the year so far into two five month blocks. In the past five months, the average monthly selling price was $1.1 million and has been above $1.05 million each month. In the first five months of the year, the average monthly selling price was $924,000. It was above $1 million only one month.

In the current boom, the ratio of the average sales price to list price has been above 100% for 21 straight months as competition has been fierce for many homes, with demand often exceeding our historically low inventory of homes. The ratio was 109.2% in October 2013.

Sales Down Slightly in 2013

There have been 558 sales in San Mateo in the first ten months of 2013, down about 5% from the 589 sales in the first ten months of 2012. Even if there is a slow end to the year, sales should easily cross the 600 threshold for only the second time since 2006.

Changes in inventory are often a first sign that a market is changing. Rising inventory can signal a shift to a market that is more favorable to buyers while falling inventory often precludes a shift to a market that is more favorable to sellers. Currently, inventory is at record low levels in San Mateo.  They really cannot fall much further. This leaves us in a position of waiting for a rise in inventory. Indeed, there was a rise in inventory in August and September. However, it turned out this was more likely just a random variation as the inventory reading at the end of October 2013 fell to the lowest since early 2013.

By The Numbers - San Mateo Real Estate for 2013