San Mateo Park Real Estate - April 2014

$2 Million Market (Again)

Average and median selling prices were above $2 million from 2006 to 2008 in the San Mateo Park real estate market, but then declined as real estate prices across the country fell. For 2011, average prices were just above $1.8 million and median prices were just below $1.7 million. By 2013, many homes were again selling for more than $2 million, but average and median prices remained below that level. In 2014, prices have clearly surpassed the mark. Most of the 9 homes sold through April have gone for more than $2 million. Here are some additional highlights of the San Mateo Park real estate market through the end April 2014:

• Nine homes have sold in the first four months of the year, which is down from 12 homes sold in the same period in 2013. However, the number of new listings is also down, from 17 in 2013 to 13 in 2014.
• We have seen a few homes go for well below the asking price (5% or more). This could be a sign of some softening in buyer demand or perhaps sellers were too aggressive in their asking prices. It still remains to be seen. Prices still appear to be rising, so it may have just been sellers misjudging the market for their specific home. Also, on average, the nine homes sold in the area in 2014 have gone for just slightly above the asking price.

Prices have risen by 10%+ in the past year. Although it is hard to pick a specific moment, the data suggests that valuations reached a new record in the area sometime in the past few months, surpassing the previous high in late 2007/early 2008.

The graph below shows the 12 month moving average for median prices, average prices and average price per square foot in San Mateo Park. The data shows median prices and average prices peaking in late 2012, falling until mid-2013, and then rising rapidly again. While the calculations are correct (we double checked), the conclusion is not. A lot of the movement was due to the type of homes that were being listed and selling, not actual changes in prices. What happened is that the type of homes that were coming onto the market in early and mid 2012 were around 2,800 square feet. This is typical for the San Mateo Park market. At that time, underlying prices had just started to rise in the area and most of the Peninsula. At the end of 2012 and into mid-2013, the type of homes that sold were on average under 2,300 square feet. These are normal random fluctuations, but had the effect of masking the rise in prices. Then in late 2013 and into early 2014, the average sold home was over 3,000 square feet. This whipsaw change in the size of homes being listed and sold gave the up-and-down impact to prices.

The partial adjustment for the change in the home sizes is to measure price per square foot. Seen in the green line below, this shows a steady and sustained increase in prices. This is a better indicator of what happened in the market. Buyers have continually paid more for a given amount of house. (One side note, it is generally true that larger homes sell for less per square foot. The larger homes selling in late 2013 and early 2014 have probably pushed down the price per square foot slightly).

By The Numbers - San Mateo Park Real Estate