San Carlos Real Estate - March 2013

No Sign of Slowdown to Price Increases

Prices continue to rise in the San Carlos real estate market and sellers are almost unable to increase listing prices fast enough, with the average home being sold for close to 10% above asking (note - even in the strongest sellers market, not all homes sell above the asking price or even end up selling).

As of March 2013, the 12 month moving averages for median price, average price and average price per square foot are all more than 10% above where they were one year ago. Also, they are all within 5% of below the absolute monthly highs seen in late 2007/early 2008. Given the current trajectory, it is very reasonable to think that the sales occurring in the next few months will be at the same price levels as the peak of 5 years ago. While that may not seem impressive at first glance, consider that it may take only 5 years in San Carlos to reverse all of the price depreciation from what economists have identified as the biggest housing crash in the history of the United States.

There are a lot of ways to get a sense of the recent upward shift in prices. From October 2008 to August 2012, the monthly average price per square foot was never above $591. Since August 2012 it has been above $600 per square foot in five of the seven months. In three of the months, it was above $640. The highest annual average occurred in 2007 at just under $640 per square foot. Just two years ago, the annual average was approximately $540 per square foot. There has been a sharp and pronounced change in prices.

Prices are rising as buyers continue to bid well over asking prices for the best homes in excellent locations. The ratio of the average sales price to list price was 102.3% in 2012. This was the first time above 100% since 2007, and the highest since 2005. The past two months have seen many homes sold for well above the asking price. The ratio was 109.5% in February 2013 and 108.3% in March 2013. These are the highest monthly readings since a four month stretch in the early 2005.

Sales Activity Moderate to Start the Year

In the first three months of 2013, there were 48 homes sold in San Carlos. This is noticeably below 2012 when there were 61 homes sold in the first quarter. However, 2012 also had the most number of sales since 2005, so the number of sales is not abnormal, just below last year.

Sales activity is being depressed by the lack of available listings. At the end of March 2013, there were just 13 unsold homes on the market in San Carlos, as compared to 27 unsold homes in March 2012 and 40 unsold homes in March 2011. Going back just four years ago, there were 77 homes unsold at the end of March 2009. The real estate market was very different at that time.

By The Numbers - San Carlos Real Estate for 2013