San Mateo Real Estate - May 2012

Inventory Continues to Fall

The San Mateo real estate market continues to become increasingly inventory constrained. In fact, things are getting to the point where we are pulling the data twice, just to make sure what we are looking at is real. There were less than 70 homes for sale in San Mateo at the end of May 2012, the lowest May total in many years and the lowest total in any month since March 2005. At the end of May 2011 there were 171 homes for sale. To put that into perspective, a buyer that was choosing between 15 homes on which to make an offer last year, now only has 6 homes to choose from this year!

Sales Activity Continues to be Strong

Even with just a modest amount of new listings replenishing the market sales activity continues to be robust. In May 2012 alone, 75 homes sold. Last May, only 44 homes sold. Through the first five months of 2012, there have been 271 homes sold, as compared to 210 homes sold in the first five months of 2011. At the current rate, there would be over 750 homes sold in San Mateo in 2012 (we'll know more after the next few months, as summer typically has the highest sales activity). There hasn't been more than 600 homes sold in a year since 2006. Higher sales have been a contributing factor to lower inventory. Another factor is that there have been fewer new listings. In 2011, new listings were down seven percent from 2010. So far in 2012, they are down another seven percent. If listings do not rise, sales activity will likely be constrained the rest of the year and likely head to higher prices (stay tuned for our June update in the next couple of weeks -- many homes attracted multiple offers and saw homes sell more than six figures over asking). At the current sales rate there is less than one month's of inventory on the market.

 

One Sign of Firm Pricing

Through the first five months of 2012, the average home sold in San Mateo did so for more than its asking price. Put differently, the average ratio of sales price to list price has been above 100%. It was below 100% each year from 2008 to 2011, a time that was characterized by flat/falling prices. A ratio at or above 100% signals that buyers are not routinely successfully bidding below asking prices.  Indeed, the number of homes with multiple offers and offers above asking prices has increased in recent months. The ratio has increased each month in 2012 and was at 102.9% in May 2012. While 2.9% might not sound like a lot, it is about $25,000 extra on an $800,000 listed house.

Average selling values, median selling values and average prices per square feet have all been fairly flat in 2012 (with June though this may uptick a little). Measuring trends in selling values in the San Mateo real estate market can be difficult because of the wide range of neighborhoods. When homes in some areas sell for less than $500,000, while others are well above $1 million, a random shift to more homes selling in one type of neighborhood versus another can impact average and median selling values.

By The Numbers - San Mateo Real Estate for 2012