No Sign to End of Sellers Market
Prices continue to rise in the San Carlos real estate market. Here are the highlights as of September 2013:
- Homes continue to be sold quickly. The average sold home was on the market for just 13 days, the fifth straight month under two weeks.
- Buyers continue to outbid each other. The average sold home went for nearly 11% above the list price, the eighth straight month where the ratio of sales price to list price has been around 110%.
- The average price per square foot was $739 in September 2013. This was the second highest reading ever in San Carlos.
- Inventory levels fell to just 15 homes in September 2013, one of the lowest levels on record.
By now, it is somewhat old news that prices are at record highs in San Carlos, but it is worth recounting how clearly that is the case. The previous annual peak in median selling values was 2007, which came in at $1,087,500. In 2013, every single month has been above that level. The median selling price for all of 2013 so far has been $1,223,636. Assuming there are no major surprises the rest of 2013, it will be a record setting year. Looking at average prices, median prices and the average price per square foot, 2013 should end up having selling values that are 10% above the previous peak in 2007.
Prices are up 20% in the past 12 months and 25% since reaching bottom in early 2012. The last two months have seen two of the highest monthly average prices per square foot at $730 in August and $739 in September. Buyers in San Carlos are paying record levels for a given "amount" of house.
It remains a bidding frenzy in San Carlos. Despite prices rising by 20% in the past 12 months, buyers still on average paid nearly 11% above the final list price in September 2013. In the last eight months, the sales price to list price ratio has been at or above 108% each month. This is a sign that the imbalance between buyers and sellers remain.
Recent Steady Sales Activity Continues
Since starting off the year slow, sales activity has picked up in the past five months. Through the first nine months of the year, sales are still down slightly from the same period in 2012, with 231 sales versus 238 sales in the prior year.
Inventory levels can often be a leading indicator to the direction of future prices. When inventory is high or rising, it can supply downward pressure on prices. When inventory is low or falling, it can supply upward pressure on prices. This is basic economics.
When inventory jumped in July 2013, it was a potential warning sign that the market could be turning. However, it turned out to be just a blip. Inventory fell in August and then declined again in September. At the end of September 2013, inventory was just 15 homes. This is one of the lowest levels on record in San Carlos.
By The Numbers - San Carlos Real Estate for 2013
|Current Month||YTD Total or Average|
|September 2012||September 2013||Jan - Sep 2012||Jan - Sep 2013|
|Days on Market||18||13||29||15|
|Months of Supply||1.5||0.5||1.2||0.8|
|Avg $ per Sq Ft||$645||$739||$566||$689|
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