San Carlos Real Estate - July 2013

Prices at Record Levels and Rising

As of July 2013, prices have surpassed the previous high watermark last seen in late 2007/early 2008 in the San Carlos real estate market. Here are the highlights as of July 2013:

• The median selling price was $1,210,000 and the average selling price was $1,291,000. July 2013 was the fifth straight month above $1.2 million for both measures. Prior the recent streak, the San Carlos market had not previously seen more than two months in a row above the $1.2 million level.
• Buyers continue to outbid each other. The average sold home went for 9% above the list price, the sixth straight month where the ratio of sales price to list price has been around 110%.
• The average sold home was on the market for just 12 days, with many selling in less than a week
• Inventory jumped to 33 homes unsold at the end of the month, up from 21 homes in June and the highest in about a year. Overall, inventory still remains low by historical standards, but is something that should be watched closely as a sustained increase could change the market momentum.

As of July 2013, the 12 month moving averages for median price, average price and average price per square foot are all 20% or more above where they were one year ago. The current readings are the highest ever recorded in San Carlos.

The price per square feet has averaged $675 in 2013 in San Carlos. In the first seven months of 2012, prices were around $555 per square foot, putting the year-over-year increase at 22%. This is quite remarkable. Even in the midst of the prior boom prices increased by 15% to 18% in 2005.

Buyers are bidding well above list prices.The ratio of the average sales price to list price has been above 108% in each of the last six months, exceeding the sustained buying frenzy last seen in the middle of 2005. Buyers should be careful about blindly bidding above list prices. Sellers are raising asking prices based on recent comps, with some also adding in future appreciation.

Sales Down for the Year, But Decent Activity in Past Few Month

Although the last three months have seen robust activity, sales are down for the year. Through the first seven months of the year, there have been 174 homes sold in San Carlos. In 2012, there were 192 homes sold in the first seven months of the year. Even down 10%, sales will be at the second highest level since 2007.

Inventory has been on a two-year down decline. For the year, the average month-end inventory of unsold homes has been 19 listings. This is 33% below 2012 (which had the lowest inventory in the past ten years) and is less than half of the average monthly inventory of 49 unsold listings over the past ten years.

Interestingly, inventory levels jumped to 33 homes in July 2013, up from 21 unsold homes at the end of June 2013. This was the highest monthly reading since August 2012. Inventory usually increases in the summer, but this was a particularly noticeable increase. Rising inventory is often one of the first signs that sentiment is shifting from a sellers market to a buyers market. While the market is very far away from that point (inventory is at historically low levels as one can see from the chart below), it is something we will monitor.

By The Numbers - San Carlos Real Estate for 2013