Interest Rates

Raziel Ungar

Raziel Ungar

October 27th, 2023 - 3 min read

NAR released national pending-sale data for September today: Unsurprisingly, interest rate increases are hitting the market very hard. 

"All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions....pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated."


New estimates for 2022 state-to-state migration were just published on 10/19/23 by the U.S. Census. (Updated county and metro-area migration figures are still not available.) 


Positive articles on the Bay Area and San Francisco have been coming out this past week in major national media. It looks like the tide may finally be turning on the (absurdly over-done) "doom-loop" theme. 

10/21/23 WSJ article, "The U.S. Cities With the Most Cutting-Edge Tech Workers," based on a ranking by the Burning Glass Institute of "established and aspiring tech the share of their tech workforce" with cutting-edge skills in fields such as cloud computing, machine learning, AI and cyber-security: The metro areas were ranked in 2 ways:  By the share of its tech workers who have these skills, and also by "momentum," based on the growth in both demand and in the advanced-skills tech workforce over the past 5 years. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue came in 1st in both categories, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara ranked 2nd in both categories, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro area (which also includes Contra Costa, Marin and San Mateo Counties) ranked 3rd in both categories. Boston-Cambridge ranked 4th (and 7th in momentum) and Austin-Round Rock ranked 5th (and 4th in momentum). Access to the WSJ article may require a subscription. 

Two positive pieces in the Washington Post (subscription may be required to access the full articles):   

"America’s big-tech cities are thriving, not dying" 

 "The latest data, drawn from analyses by Brookings Institution experts William Frey and Mark Muro, show that big tech cities such as San Francisco, Seattle and New York are significantly rebounding. Their population losses have abated, and they remain major hubs for innovation. In fact, big cities and their surrounding suburbs and rural areas greatly contribute to the strength of the U.S. economy and keep the United States at the global forefront of advanced computing and technology." 

"Despite their fluctuating populations in recent years, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston remain the nation’s artificial intelligence capitals...Despite their fluctuating populations in recent years, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston [along with San Jose] remain the nation’s artificial intelligence capitals...Nearly one-quarter of the [job] postings were published in the Bay Area. San Francisco is hardly finished being a major tech hub; it’s the new Klondike of the generative AI gold-rush." 

"From doom to boom: AI is slowly re-energizing San Francisco" 

"Buzzy AI startups are landing big investments, drawing talent to the city and occupying more real estate...The recent boom in AI — led by advances in generative AI — is not only re-energizing this city’s tech community, but it is also triggering a movement of people to the city and office-space rentals by companies." 

The New Yorker also had a long article in its most recent edition, giving a more balanced view on SF:

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